A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward.

A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward

LOS ANGELES — In the days following the strikes, the Iranian diaspora found itself split between opposing reactions. One group gathered near City Hall, voicing opposition to the ongoing conflict, while another celebrated in Tehrangeles, a Los Angeles neighborhood. The former chanted, “Halt the conflict in Iran,” and emphasized the need to avoid war, while the latter cheered the possibility of regime change, waving flags from multiple nations and dancing to upbeat tunes.

These contrasting sentiments highlight the growing rift within the community, particularly as the violence in the Middle East intensifies. Many Iranians in exile, whose families left after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, now feel a mix of hope and fear. Abbas Milani, a Stanford University professor specializing in Iranian studies, noted that some individuals are so frustrated with the current regime that they would support its destruction, even if it meant collateral damage. Others, however, advocate for toppling the government without sacrificing peace.

Previously, the diaspora had shown unity in condemning the government’s harsh treatment of protesters. Now, the situation has shifted. “The visual contrast between destruction and enthusiastic support for war has created more tension than usual,” Milani explained. “The discord will likely grow before it eases.”

Online discussions have become more polarized since the attack. Supporters of military action are often tagged as “Zionists,” a term that has taken on a negative connotation following Hamas’s assault on Israel in October 2023. Conversely, those opposing war face accusations of aligning with the regime. The debate over who should lead Iran if the government collapses remains fierce. While Reza Pahlavi, the heir to the last shah, garners backing from some, others remain skeptical of a return to monarchy-linked leadership.

Meanwhile, the government’s internet blackout has left many Iranians in the diaspora disconnected from their homeland. As the death toll climbs, the community grapples with uncertainty. Nowruz, the Persian New Year, looms as a time for renewal, yet rumors swirl about Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son, possibly stepping into his father’s role. Analysts suggest the Revolutionary Guard Corps could further consolidate its influence if the current conflict persists.

President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to dismantle Iran’s leadership entirely, hinting at potential replacements. However, a recent NBC News survey shows that 54% of voters disapprove of his approach to the crisis. This mirrors the internal division within the Iranian diaspora, where 53% of respondents previously opposed U.S. military action, according to a poll by the National Iranian American Council and YouGov. A new survey, set for release next week, may offer updated insights.

“We are not a monolith,” wrote the Iranian Diaspora Collective, an Instagram account with over 81,000 followers. “Millions of people will never share the same ideology or identity, and that diversity is the strength of any free society.”

A Los Angeles-based Christian pastor, Ara Torosian, who fled Iran in 2010, expressed heartbreak over the destruction of historical landmarks and the loss of innocent lives, especially children. Yet he argued that the suffering today surpasses generations of repression under the regime. Torosian recounted being imprisoned and beaten after the Revolutionary Guard discovered Christian symbols in his Tehran home. “The fall of the supreme leader brings relief,” he said, “even as the cost of war weighs heavily.”