The US-Israeli war on Iran is founded on two huge mistakes
The US-Israeli War on Iran Is Built on Two Major Errors
Over two weeks into the Israeli-US offensive against Iran, it appears the conflict was rooted in two significant errors. The first stems from American miscalculations about the feasibility of dismantling the Iranian regime, while the second reflects Israeli misjudgment of Hezbollah’s capacity to retaliate.
Assuming Regime Collapse Was Feasible
U.S. intelligence sources suggest the Iranian government remains intact despite sustained bombardment by Israeli and American forces. This contradicts earlier claims that the Islamic Republic would crumble under pressure. Netanyahu, in his first televised address since the assault, had argued that immediate action was necessary to prevent Iran’s military capabilities from becoming untouchable. He insisted that the operation would create favorable conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime, framing the attack as a step toward regime change.
“If we had not acted immediately, within a few months Iran’s industries of death would have become immune to any strike,” Netanyahu stated.
Trump echoed similar optimism, asserting that his actions averted a nuclear conflict. “If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first,” he claimed, reinforcing the narrative that the war was a preventive measure.
Underestimating Hezbollah’s Response
Despite the Israeli-US campaign’s focus on weakening Iran, the regional militant group Hezbollah demonstrated resilience. The initial strikes, though damaging, did not account for the group’s ability to coordinate a robust retaliation. This oversight highlights a critical misreading of Hezbollah’s role in Iran’s strategic calculus.
Israel and the U.S. believed the war would exploit Iran’s weakened state, following the heavy losses inflicted on its allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria and the attrition of Hezbollah in Lebanon were seen as signs of vulnerability. However, Iran’s swift replacement of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei, underscores the regime’s durability.
Reevaluating the War’s Impact
While the Israeli-US assault claimed significant damage to Iran’s military infrastructure, it did not deliver a decisive blow. The initial optimism that the attack would reduce Iran’s threat to Israel and the world has since been challenged. The country has retaliated by targeting Gulf neighbors and striking Israeli forces, even killing U.S. troops. These actions have intensified regional instability and raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz being closed, potentially triggering a severe energy crisis.
Netanyahu’s June 2025 declaration of a “historic victory” now seems premature. He had proclaimed that Israel “removed two existential threats” to the country, but Iran’s continued operations reveal that the goal of regime change was never fully achieved. The war’s outcome has instead emboldened Iran to assert its influence, challenging American dominance in the Middle East and beyond.
