Is Iran’s regime at a breaking point?

Is Iran’s Regime at a Breaking Point?

Eighteen days into the conflict, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards continue to operate despite major setbacks. Their decentralized command structure allows them to sustain efforts, though analysts note internal pressures within the leadership hierarchy.

On the third week of the war, the initial shock from attacks by the US and Israel appears to have subsided. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening hours of the conflict, along with the elimination of other key political and military figures, might have suggested a collapse of Iran’s central authority. However, Middle East analyst Habib Hosseini-Fard argues this assessment is flawed. “Iran’s power structure has adapted to the challenges, proving its resilience,” he told DW.

Despite the losses, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains active, launching attacks across multiple fronts. The organization’s ability to function independently at the provincial level supports its ongoing operations. On Tuesday, Israel claimed to have killed Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and on Monday, Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij militia, was reportedly targeted in another strike.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported over 300 attacks by Iran on Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain in the last two weeks. Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry noted that more than 60 drones had been intercepted in its airspace since midnight. These incidents underscore the scale of the ongoing confrontation.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has dismissed the possibility of negotiations, stating no cease-fire will be agreed upon while the US and Israel continue targeting Iranian infrastructure. The IRGC, which was established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to counter perceived threats to the regime, still holds a central role in the country’s military strategy. With personnel strength estimated at up to 200,000, it remains a formidable force.

“Over the past two decades, the IRGC has transformed from a centralized entity into a networked organization,” Hosseini-Fard explained. “Provincial commands now operate with considerable autonomy, enabling rapid responses to evolving situations.” He emphasized that Iran’s strategic depth, including underground missile silos, ensures its military capabilities cannot be easily dismantled.

Reza Talebi, a political analyst, highlights the complexity of Iran’s internal dynamics. “Simplistic assumptions about the regime’s collapse ignore the deep ties between military and ideological actors,” he said. “The IRGC functions as a multifaceted institution, influencing economic and political systems beyond Iran’s borders.”

Recent attacks, such as the drone and rocket strike on the US embassy in Baghdad, demonstrate Iran’s persistence. Gulf nations and maritime targets in the Persian Gulf have also been hit, reinforcing the country’s strategic reach. Talebi stresses that the Revolutionary Guards are not only a military force but also a key player in shaping Iran’s broader influence in the region.