‘Shooting gallery’: How a US invasion of Iranian islands might unfold
‘Shooting gallery’: How a US invasion of Iranian islands might unfold
Strategic Challenges of a US Invasion
Former US military officials and analysts warn that deploying US Marines and paratroopers to capture an Iranian island in the Gulf could place them in a high-risk “shooting gallery” scenario, according to Middle East Eye. The operation would face challenges such as exposed supply routes and unclear military goals.
Initial Invasion Tactics
Any US incursion would likely begin with electronic warfare to disrupt radar systems and communication networks in the region, followed by a focused aerial bombardment phase. Seth Krummrich, former chief of staff for US special operations in the Middle East, explained that the US must first conduct a “preparation and isolation” effort before launching attacks.
“The US will have to do a preparation and isolation effort first,” Krummrich told MEE.
He added that preparatory strikes would target key defensive structures. “Electronic warfare would be followed by ‘preparatory’ strikes to destroy defences,” said Krummrich, now a senior executive at Global Guardian.
Target Islands and Their Significance
The US could aim to seize multiple islands, though three stand out as primary targets. Kharg, located near Kuwait, is critical due to its role as a major hub for Iranian oil exports, handling around 90 percent of the nation’s output.
Abu Musa and two adjacent islands are positioned at the Gulf’s center. These were taken by the former shah of Iran in 1971, but the UAE—aligned with the US and Israel—claims sovereignty over them. Qeshm, the largest island, presents a more complex challenge. It hosts a tunnel network used to store drones and missiles, and its population of 150,000 makes it a strategic stronghold near Bandar Abbas.
Historical Precedents and Modern Strategy
Historical campaigns like WWII’s battles for Okinawa and Iwo Jima are often cited when discussing US island warfare. However, Daniel Davis, a former Army lieutenant colonel, argued that air insertion would be the preferred method due to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I don’t see any way in hell that you are going to get the USS Boxer or the USS Tripoli through the Strait of Hormuz,” Davis said, referring to the amphibious ships carrying thousands of Marines.
He noted that relying on air transport would minimize exposure to Iran’s defenses. “There is only one real possibility, and that’s by air,” Davis stated. “I’d wager on a helicopter insertion from the UAE, but Iran can read a map too, so they will be ready.”
Gulf State Support and US Deployment
According to Kalev Sepp, a former US special forces officer and professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, the US invasion force would depend heavily on bases in Gulf nations. “They can’t do this without neighbouring Gulf states giving them access to bases,” Sepp said.
MEE reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly supportive of US-Israeli efforts against Iran. The UAE has publicly opposed ceasefires that leave Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia has granted the US expanded air access and logistical support.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed the US could achieve its objectives without ground troops, yet forces are still being dispatched to the region. Two marine expeditionary units, approximately 2,500 personnel, are nearing the Middle East. In addition, 3,000 paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are being mobilized.
The last Western attempt to seize islands close to a country’s mainland occurred in 1982, when Britain recaptured the Falklands from Argentina. Argentina’s air force inflicted significant damage on British ships during the landing. However, Iran’s islands are geographically closer to the mainland, making them more defensible with traditional artillery despite their distance from the Falklands’ scale.
