Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum nears – with little indication Iran is on board
Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum nears – with little indication Iran is on board
Over the past five weeks, President Donald Trump has imposed deadlines, made demands, and issued threats as part of the U.S.-Israel alliance’s campaign against Iran. Yet, the level of clarity in his latest escalation is unprecedented. A fresh wave of attacks on Iran is set to commence at 20:00 Washington DC time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT on Wednesday), with a target of dismantling all bridges and power plants within four hours. “Very little is off-limits,” Trump declared on Monday, signaling that Iran must accept a deal “acceptable to me” to avoid this outcome. A key clause in the proposed agreement would ensure unimpeded oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
As the deadline looms, Iran shows no signs of compliance. The country has dismissed a temporary ceasefire and presented its own list of conditions, labeled by a U.S. official as “maximalist.” This leaves Trump in a precarious situation. If no agreement emerges, he might extend his ultimatum for the fourth time in three weeks. However, retreating from such pointed threats risks undermining his authority as the conflict intensifies.
Ambiguity in Trump’s stance
Despite the gravity of the situation, Trump remains hopeful. “We have an active, willing participant on the other side,” he said, hinting that Iran is open to negotiation. Yet, his cautious approach contrasts with his earlier assertions of dominance. During Monday’s press conference, he praised the precision of the recent rescue operation, which involved coordinating hundreds of aircraft and elite forces to save two downed American pilots. However, this success was framed as a way to prevent a “potential tragedy” rather than a decisive victory.
“We won,” Trump insisted. “They are militarily defeated. The only thing they have is the psychology of: ‘Oh, we’re going to drop a couple of mines in the water.’”
Trump emphasized that Iran’s deterrence capabilities—using drones, missiles, and mines to block oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—might be more formidable than acknowledged. While he celebrated the military’s exactness in operations like the “Midnight Hammer” raid and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, he admitted that the ongoing strikes could still leave American forces vulnerable. “We can bomb the hell out of them,” he stated, “but to close the Strait, all you need is one terrorist.”
Though Trump expressed reluctance to proceed with full-scale bombing, he acknowledged the Iranian public’s endurance of the campaign. “They welcome the bombs falling on their cities,” he said. However, he warned that destruction could lead to prolonged rebuilding, with the country needing a century to recover from a complete infrastructure collapse. “Right now, if we leave today, it will take them 20 years to rebuild,” he noted, underscoring the dilemma between immediate action and long-term consequences.
With the clock ticking, Trump’s uncertainty about Iran’s willingness to negotiate has intensified. While he claims “every single thing has been thought out by all of us,” he refrains from revealing specifics. This opacity suggests that behind-the-scenes talks may be further advanced than publicly disclosed. Whether it’s a blend of confidence and strategic maneuvering, or a calculated gamble, the final hours remain critical as the president awaits Iran’s response.
