Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Aintree’s Grand National remains a celebrated event in the British horse racing calendar. However, with 34 competitors vying for the title, selecting the eventual champion often resembles a random draw. Despite this, historical data might offer clues to narrow the possibilities for the 2026 edition.
Historical Odds and Trends
Over the past 25 years, the race has had 25 renewals, with the 2020 event suspended due to the pandemic. The most affordable winner was Tiger Roll in 2019, who triumphed at 4-1 and marked the first consecutive victory since Red Rum’s 1970s dominance. Conversely, Mon Mome claimed the 2009 title at 100-1, while last year’s winner, Nick Rockett, was priced at 33-1. On average, the winner of this century has fetched just under 24-1, though the past decade saw five instances where the victor was 11-1 or shorter. This suggests that higher odds shouldn’t automatically deter bettors.
Weight Analysis
The weight carried by Grand National winners has varied significantly. Over the past 25 runnings, the range has stretched from 10st 3lb to 11st 9lb. If this pattern continues, the top six horses in the field—especially I Am Maximus, a contender for the highest weight—might face challenges. Nine of the last 11 winners have fallen within 10st 5lb to 11st 8lb, a factor that could help trim the field. The average weight for winners in this era hovers around 10st 12lb to 10st 13lb, with 11st 6lb emerging as the most successful individual weight, yielding three triumphs.
Age and Experience
Age appears to play a role in recent years. No horse older than 10 has secured victory since 2014. Yet, in 2022, Noble Yeats defied this trend by becoming the first seven-year-old to win since Bogskar in 1940. This indicates that horses aged eight or nine may hold an edge. In the last decade, eight of the nine winners have been in this age bracket, with Tiger Roll’s 2019 comeback as a notable example.
Trainers and Jockeys
Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have left their mark. Mullins, who trained the last two champions, has had six top-five finishes in the past 10 runnings. Gordon Elliott, with Tiger Roll’s back-to-back wins, also has a strong track record, including four top-five placements. Henry de Bromhead, who claimed victory in 2021, has added two more top-five results to his tally. Together, these three trainers are set to handle 16 of the 34 runners in the 2026 race.
Among jockeys, Paul Townend has two top-five finishes, including his 2024 win. He has opted to ride I Am Maximus, a decision influenced by his status as Mullins’ stable jockey. Jack Kennedy has reached the podium four times, while Mark Walsh and Danny Mullins each have three and two top-five results, respectively.
Official Ratings
Handicappers assign official ratings to each horse based on their performance. Fourteen of the last 16 winners have been rated 146 or higher, with 13 of these falling between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett are among the horses with notable ratings in this context.
