As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

NATO Chief Warns of Shrinking Military Amid Defence Spending Concerns

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised alarms about the UK’s defense strategy, claiming it risks national security due to insufficient military investment. His critique highlights a growing disparity between defense budgets and welfare spending, as the government’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR) faces scrutiny for its approach.

Military Size Reduction Since 1990

Since the end of the Cold War, the UK military has undergone significant downsizing. In 1990, the army maintained 153,000 regular soldiers, but this number has dropped to 73,790 today. The 2025 SDR proposed maintaining at least 73,000 in the regular force, yet enlistment applications have already declined by 40% in 2025 compared to 2024.

Reservists have also seen a sharp decline, falling from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 now. The Royal Navy, once equipped with 48 major combat ships (13 destroyers, 35 frigates), now operates 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. Meanwhile, the RAF’s fleet of combat jets has shrunk from over 300 in 1990 to 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are technologically advanced but fewer in count.

Drones and Evolving Threats

Uncrewed aircraft systems—drones—have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air force capabilities, a role they did not play in 1990. These systems are now central to modern warfare, as demonstrated by their impact in the Ukraine conflict, where they have surpassed traditional artillery in casualties. Analysts emphasize the need for increased investment in such technology.

Government’s Defence Spending Ambitions

Responding to Robertson’s concerns, the government announced plans for the largest sustained rise in defense spending since the Cold War. However, critics argue this is a modest goal, given the long-term decline in defense budgets after the fall of the Berlin Wall. By 2027, the UK aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defense spending, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next parliamentary session.

Robertson pointed out that welfare spending now outpaces defense funding, a shift from the mid-1980s when defense was higher. By the end of the decade, welfare costs are expected to reach 4.3% of GDP, driven in part by rising Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims. While mental health conditions may contribute to PIP growth, researchers are still debating the exact causes.

Procurement Challenges and Project Delays

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) manages 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in 2024-25, yet progress on 12 of these projects was rated ‘Red’ by the National Audit Office (NAO), indicating unmet targets. The NAO criticized the MoD for consistently failing to deliver projects on time, within budget, and to required standards.

For projects exceeding £20 million, the MoD typically takes six and a half years to award contracts, a delay that has sparked calls for a “segmented approach” outlined in the 2025 SDR. This method aims to expedite contract awards within two years. Despite these challenges, the UK has pledged to meet a NATO target of 5% GDP for national security by 2035, split between 3.5% core defense and 1.5% for infrastructure and civil preparedness.

Global Spending Context

As of 2025, the UK’s defense spending stands at 2.3% of GDP, placing it above the mid-point of NATO members’ allocations. Only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia exceeded 3.5% in defense spending during the same year, though Estonia and Norway were close. The SDR’s recommendations and ongoing procurement struggles underscore the need for strategic adjustments to ensure readiness against modern threats.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” said Lord Robertson, highlighting the imbalance between civilian and military expenditures.