US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say

US Experience in the Iran Conflict Offers Strategic Lessons for China

US experience fighting Iran offers lessons – As the Iran conflict extends into its third month, the ongoing military engagement in the Persian Gulf has become a critical case study for China. The battle highlights how the United States leverages its technological and tactical advantages, while also exposing vulnerabilities that Beijing must address in its own defense strategies. Analysts from China, Taiwan, and international institutions have emphasized that the war provides both a mirror and a roadmap for China’s military planning, particularly in scenarios involving a potential confrontation with the United States.

China’s Defensive Weaknesses and Lessons from Iran

Experts have pointed to the Iranian use of relatively simple yet effective weapons as a cautionary tale for China. Despite the US’s advanced anti-missile systems, such as the Patriot and THAAD, Iran managed to bypass these defenses using low-cost Shahed drones and affordable ballistic missiles. This has raised concerns about China’s ability to counter similar threats in a future conflict. Fu Qianshao, a former colonel in China’s air force, highlighted the importance of identifying gaps in defensive capabilities, noting that “the adversary always has a significant role in shaping the outcome of any battle.”

“We need to devote significant efforts to identify weaknesses in our defensive side to ensure we remain invincible in future wars,” Fu told CNN.

While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made strides in offensive capabilities, its defensive systems still require refinement. Recent years have seen rapid advancements in China’s military arsenal, including hypersonic glide vehicles capable of evading interception. These weapons, paired with platforms like the J-20 stealth fighter, underscore China’s growing ability to project power. However, the Iranian example suggests that even the most sophisticated offensive tools can be neutralized if defenses are not equally robust.

Iran’s Tactics and China’s Strategic Adaptation

Analysts observe that Iran’s success in the conflict demonstrates the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. The country’s reliance on cost-effective drone swarms and massed ballistic missile attacks has disrupted US operations, proving that simplicity and volume can counterbalance high-tech superiority. This has led to discussions about how China might integrate similar strategies in its own military campaigns, particularly in scenarios where economic efficiency and technological reach are key.

The US, in contrast, has deployed a mix of advanced and conventional weapons, including F-35s, B-2 stealth bombers, and guided munitions from older platforms like the B-1 and B-52. This combination has allowed the US to strike critical targets, from missile silos to naval assets and infrastructure. For China, the challenge lies in replicating this versatility while ensuring its key infrastructure remains protected. Fu Qianshao stressed that Beijing must plan for such scenarios, advising that “guarding airfields, ports, and strategic sites requires a proactive and comprehensive approach.”

Taiwan as a Potential Flashpoint

While the Iran conflict offers tactical insights, its broader implications extend to the Pacific region, particularly Taiwan. Analysts note that Taiwan is often seen as a possible battleground in a future US-China war, given its strategic location and its role as a symbol of China’s territorial ambitions. The island’s current military posture, however, faces scrutiny. A recent government watchdog report highlighted that Taiwan’s drone countermeasures are “ineffective” and present a “major security risk” to critical installations.

Despite these vulnerabilities, Taiwan is actively working to strengthen its defenses. Gene Su, managing director of Thunder Tiger, one of the island’s leading drone manufacturers, called for increased investment in mass production capabilities. “We need to produce continuously, day and night, to counter our enemies,” Su emphasized. His comments reflect a growing recognition that Taiwan’s ability to sustain its drone operations will be vital in any prolonged conflict.

“Chinese civilian manufacturers have the capacity to retool in under a year to turn out one billion weaponized drones annually,” a 2025 report on China’s drone program in the analytical platform War on the Rocks states.

Meanwhile, China’s military display has reinforced its capacity to support President Xi Jinping’s vision of a global order reshaped by its influence. The ability to deploy hypersonic missiles and stealth bombers, combined with a drone manufacturing infrastructure that rivals the US, signals a strategic shift. However, the question remains: can these capabilities ensure a decisive victory over Taiwan?

US Adaptation and the Changing Dynamics of War

As the conflict in the Persian Gulf unfolds, the US military is also reevaluating its approach. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, highlighted during a Senate hearing in April that drones have transformed the cost and complexity of offensive operations. “Drones make warfare much more costly for the offensive side,” he noted, suggesting that the US may find itself in a defensive role in a Pacific conflict, relying on its network of bases and alliances to withstand a potential barrage of Chinese aerial assets.

This shift in perspective aligns with the broader realization that the US must adapt to a landscape where China’s technological and logistical advantages could dominate. The lessons from Iran, particularly the importance of defending key infrastructure and the value of drone swarms, are being integrated into US planning. Analysts argue that the US should not only focus on its own strengths but also anticipate how China might exploit its vulnerabilities.

For China, the war in Iran has been a microcosm of the challenges it may face in a broader conflict with the US. While the PLA has made impressive strides in offensive capabilities, its defensive systems must evolve to match. The country’s investment in fifth-generation stealth fighters and hypersonic missiles positions it as a formidable force, yet the Iranian example reminds it that even the most advanced militaries can be outmaneuvered by creative tactics and resourcefulness.

Ultimately, the conflict in Iran serves as a valuable test for China’s military doctrine. It underscores the need for continuous improvement, strategic foresight, and the ability to balance offense with defense. As both nations prepare for potential clashes, the lessons learned from this battle will shape the way they approach future engagements, ensuring that neither side underestimates the other’s capabilities or the complexity of modern warfare.