Trump concocts a fantasy world on pre-war prices

Trump’s Pre-War Price Claims Under Scrutiny

Trump concocts a fantasy world on pre – President Donald Trump’s assertion that prices were low before the war with Iran has drawn criticism from analysts and fact-checkers. While his policies have been credited with managing certain economic aspects, the data tells a different story. The war, which began on February 28, 2026, coincided with a period of rising costs, yet Trump continues to portray the pre-war economy as one of affordability and stability. This narrative, however, lacks substantial support from actual economic indicators.

Flawed Inflation Figures

When questioned about inflation, Trump has repeatedly cited misleading figures. During a White House gathering on Tuesday, he claimed, “

We had — inflation was at 1.6% for the last three months just prior to the war.

” This statement contrasts with his earlier remarks to reporters, where he stated, “

If you go back to just before the war, for the last three months, inflation was at 1.7%.

” Both numbers are inaccurate, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in November 2025, 2.7% in December 2025, and 2.4% in January 2026. By February 2026, the inflation rate had already reached 2.4%, with data collection completed before the war began. It surged further to 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April, clearly refuting Trump’s claims of minimal price growth.

Gas Price Deceptions

Trump’s focus on gasoline prices has been a recurring theme in his pre-war assertions. He told reporters, “

We had numbers that nobody’s seen in a long time. So you had $2 a gallon.

” Yet, the reality is starkly different. On the day the war commenced, the national average for regular gasoline was $2.98 per gallon, according to AAA. Oklahoma had the lowest rate at $2.47, while Iowa’s average stood at $2.64. Trump’s reference to stations selling gas for under $2 in Iowa is also questionable. GasBuddy reported that only four stations nationwide were priced below $2 per gallon on February 24, 2026, before the war began. Even on February 27 and 28, the state average in Iowa remained at $2.64, with just a handful of stations offering prices as low as $1.97.

The President’s Economic Narrative

Trump has framed his economic performance as a series of victories, particularly in controlling inflation. He stated, “

We inherited high prices and we got the prices down, and we got them down to numbers that in some cases people have not seen before.

” While some individual products, like eggs, may have seen price declines, the broader picture shows a different trend. CPI data reveals that average prices were up 2.9% through February 2026, and had risen 4.8% by April. This suggests that the overall cost of living has increased significantly during his second term, contradicting his assertion of widespread price reductions.

His statements about gas prices often blur the distinction between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. In an interview with Fox News, Trump noted, “

Look, prices are down, but the energy caused it to go up.

” This seems contradictory, as the energy sector’s impact on prices is evident in the data. When the war began, the national gas average was already climbing, and Trump’s claims about prices being “down” fail to account for the broader context. Even during his early presidency, the average gasoline price was $2.57 in Iowa, which is closer to the February 2026 average than the $1.85 he cited in his speech.

Reality Check: Pre-War Costs

Fact-checkers have dismantled Trump’s pre-war price claims, revealing how they distort the economic reality. The CPI figures for November, December, and January 2025 indicate that inflation was already on the rise, not at the low levels Trump described. By February 2026, the inflation rate had climbed to 2.4%, with the war starting on the last day of the month. This timeline shows that the pre-war period was not a time of stability but rather one of gradual increases.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, explained that the trend of rising prices was consistent in the weeks leading up to the war. “

There would have been ‘the same or fewer stations’ under $2 on February 28, as overall prices were trending upward at the time.

” This means that even if a few stations offered discounted prices, the national average remained far above the $2 threshold Trump repeatedly emphasized. His selective use of data paints an incomplete picture, focusing only on isolated examples rather than the broader economic context.

A Broader Economic Picture

While Trump highlights specific items, such as eggs, as examples of price declines, the overall data tells a different story. The president’s rhetoric suggests that the entire economy was in a state of affordability, but CPI figures show that the majority of goods and services have seen upward trends. For instance, through February 2026, average prices were up 2.9% since the start of his second term, and by April, this increase had grown to 4.8%. These figures underscore that the pre-war economy was not as favorable as Trump portrayed.

Analysts argue that Trump’s focus on gas prices is a strategic attempt to simplify a complex issue. By emphasizing the $1.85 figure in Iowa, he creates an illusion of control over the economy. However, the national average for gas prices on February 28, 2026, was $2.98, meaning that the average consumer was paying well above the $2 mark. This discrepancy highlights how Trump’s statements can be misleading when taken out of context. His repeated claims about “sub-$2 gas” and “sub-2% inflation” ignore the broader inflationary pressures affecting other sectors.

Despite these inconsistencies, Trump continues to present his economic policies as a success. His narrative relies on cherry-picking data and ignoring the overall trend. For example, he told reporters, “

Outside of the gasoline, prices are way down. Prices have come down,

” suggesting that most goods were affordable. However, the CPI data shows that the average price for goods and services has increased significantly, with the war beginning in a period of rising costs. This contradiction raises questions about the accuracy of his claims and their impact on public perception.

In conclusion, Trump’s portrayal of the pre-war economy as one of affordability and low inflation is a carefully constructed narrative. While some products may have seen modest price reductions, the overall economic data tells a different story. The inflation rate was already climbing before the war began, and gas prices were far above the $2 threshold he frequently cites. These inaccuracies highlight the importance of scrutinizing political statements with factual evidence, ensuring that the public is not misled by selective data or fictionalized accounts of the economy.