Is Europe sleepwalking into its worst gas crisis since 2022?
Europe Faces Looming Gas Crisis: A New Chapter Since 2022?
Energy Prices Surge Amid Regional Storage Challenges
The Iran conflict has reshaped Europe’s energy outlook within weeks. The Dutch TTF gas price, a key benchmark, climbed from €38 per megawatt-hour to €54 month-to-date, marking a 70% spike. This surge positions March 2026 as the most dramatic monthly increase in gas prices since September 2021. The implications extend beyond energy markets, signaling a deeper crisis in supply stability.
Storage Levels at Historic Lows
Europe entered this phase with already precarious energy reserves. As of March 24, underground storage stood at 28.4%, or 325 terawatt-hours — 5 percentage points below the prior year and significantly under the five-year seasonal average, per Kyos European Gas Analytics. Germany’s facilities are at 22.3%, down nearly 7 points year-on-year, while France mirrors this trend with 22.1% capacity. The Netherlands, however, faces the most urgent threat: storage fell to 6.0%, or 9 TWh, less than a third of last year’s levels and below historical lows for this season.
Contrast with Iberian Peninsula
Portugal and Spain remain relatively sheltered, with storage at 85.3% and 55.5% respectively. Their resilience stems from robust LNG import systems, lower reliance on gas for electricity, and expanded renewable energy infrastructure, which has dampened their vulnerability to price volatility. This stark contrast underscores the uneven impact of the supply crisis across the continent.
Qatar’s Export Constraints Amplify Risk
Qatar, Europe’s second-largest LNG supplier, confirmed it cannot fulfill contracts after Iran’s attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City. The damage threatens to sideline up to 84 billion cubic metres annually, with repairs estimated to take five years. Goldman Sachs’ March 22 report raised its Q2 2026 TTF forecast to €72/MWh from €63/MWh, warning of a need to divert LNG from Asian markets to secure storage before winter. In a severe scenario, prolonged Hormuz disruptions could drive TTF above €89/MWh in summer and surpass €100/MWh if Qatari infrastructure faces extended damage.
Analyst Projections Highlight Extreme Scenarios
A Montel News survey of energy experts sharpens these concerns. If Hormuz disruptions last three months, TTF prices might hit €90/MWh, according to Wood Mackenzie and Montel Analytics. Ole Hvalbye of SEB warns that prolonged closures could see prices range from €115 to €155/MWh, removing 28.6 billion cubic metres of LNG from the global market. A six-month closure, the poll suggests, could push TTF averages to nearly €160/MWh — a “2022-style squeeze or worse,” as Moles described, with storage for next winter possibly “close to impossible.”
Impact on Consumers: Price vs. Shortage
While physical shortages are not immediate, price pressures are intense. Giuseppe Moles, CEO of Italy’s Acquirente Unico, explained the transmission of costs in an exclusive Euronews interview. Gas bill increases are direct, with Italy’s regulator ARERA setting a €35.21/MWh rate for February. However, this figure does not yet account for the recent price surge. Electricity costs are also climbing, though the retail impact is more diffuse. “The electricity market is already absorbing part of the gas shock,” Moles noted, estimating household bill increases at a few percentage points — noticeable, yet far less severe than the 60–70% wholesale gas jump.
Broader Fuel Market Pressures
The crisis extends beyond gas, affecting crude oil, freight, and refining. Moles highlighted that refining capacity is the “real bottleneck,” with elevated costs due to higher freight rates, insurance premiums, and production constraints. Despite Italy’s 43.9% storage level, which outpaces the EU average, Moles stressed that the immediate risk lies in price escalation rather than supply scarcity.
“The real bottleneck is refining,” Moles said.
