Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
President Trump asserts the United States maintains an almost inexhaustible arsenal of military equipment, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforcing this stance during a visit to US Central Command in Florida. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need,” Hegseth stated, signaling confidence in the nation’s military capacity. However, the logistics of maintaining such a war may not be as seamless as the rhetoric suggests, particularly concerning the availability of advanced weaponry.
Operation Epic Fury and Early Impact
On February 28, the U.S. initiated “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran, followed by a series of strikes over the subsequent week. The campaign involved over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea, targeting more than 3,000 locations within Iran. In the initial phase, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly eliminated by a joint US-Israeli operation. Despite this early success, the war’s sustainability hinges on the balance between offensive and defensive resources.
Munitions Supply and Strategic Claims
Trump has emphasized that the conflict could extend beyond a few weeks, with the U.S. possessing the “capability to go far longer than that.” Yet, the reality of munitions logistics raises questions. While the administration claims no shortage of firepower, experts highlight discrepancies in the grading of weapons. “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better,” Trump noted in a social media post, but admitted limitations in the highest-grade arsenal.
“There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “High-grade weapons like these take time to build.”
Cost Efficiency Concerns
Iran’s Shahed 136 drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have been deployed in large numbers, challenging U.S. defense capabilities. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out that while the U.S. has sufficient ground munitions, the cost of countermeasures remains high. Fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, for example, cost $450,000, with hourly operational expenses reaching $40,000. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” Cancian explained, questioning the efficiency of the exchange.
“The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers,” said Grieco, suggesting the need for cheaper alternatives like interceptor drones used in Ukraine.
Lockheed Martin’s agreement to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year was already public, yet Trump’s recent meeting with defense firms aimed to accelerate high-grade missile deliveries. While the White House framed this as a new initiative, Grieco viewed it as a “non-announcement,” noting most agreements had been announced months prior. This raises concerns about whether the U.S. can truly replenish its critical stockpiles in time.
