Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Beijing promised to “fight back” over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is set to meet with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, an event that has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of the military pressure China exerted during last year’s visit by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei. At that time, Beijing deployed massive military drills, launching multiple missiles into the surrounding waters and sending warplanes across the critical median line of the Taiwan Strait. The island’s diplomatic and economic ties with the United States were also strained as Beijing retaliated against what it saw as a breach of its sovereignty.

This week’s gathering, however, has Beijing warning of a “resolute response” if it proceeds. The nation has also criticized Washington for permitting Tsai to make a stopover during her Central America trip, hinting that the meeting could intensify the rivalry between the two powers. Despite these threats, Tsai remains undeterred, vowing during her departure that external pressures would not deter Taiwan from engaging with global democracies.

“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, head of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

Analysts suggest the meeting’s location in California and its timing—during a tense period in China’s international relations and before Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election—could lead Beijing to adopt a more measured approach. “They have to consider the consequences of overreaction,” Sun added, noting the difficulty of predicting China’s response due to the opacity of its political system and internal bureaucratic complexities.

Meanwhile, the meeting underscores the fragile state of US-China relations, which are currently under strain over issues like the downed Chinese surveillance balloon and semiconductor supply chains. A strong reaction from Beijing could worsen these tensions, especially since Taiwan is still recovering from the fallout of last August’s military actions. The Central News Agency reported Monday that Tsai would meet with McCarthy, highlighting the significance of the event for Taiwan’s diplomatic standing.

“She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” noted Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at Australia’s National University Taiwan Studies Program.

For Tsai, entering her final year of a two-term presidency, the encounter represents a pivotal moment. It reinforces her role as a leader who has strengthened Taiwan’s ties with the United States, despite Beijing’s persistent claims of sovereignty. The Communist Party insists Taiwan is part of its territory, and has expanded its military capabilities under Xi Jinping’s leadership, making the island a focal point in the ongoing geopolitical struggle.