Exclusive: Iranian authorities prepare for civil war scenario
Exclusive: Iranian Authorities Plan for Civil War
With ongoing Israeli and US strikes against Iran, political and military figures are assessing the risk of an internal conflict, according to sources. The possibility of a civil war scenario has prompted strategic preparations by senior officials, as reported by Middle East Eye.
Expanded Military Powers Post-Conflict
Following the 12-day war with Israel and the US in June last year, Iranian leaders concluded that another conflict was imminent. To address this, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been granted broader operational authority across western, southwestern, and southeastern regions. This move allows for independent actions if central command communications are disrupted.
“In the next conflict, the US and Israel will repeat tactics they used in Iraq and Syria,” a source noted. “During the 12-day war, they saw we could retaliate with nationwide missile capabilities.”
Plans to establish autonomous command centers and deploy ground forces to potential hotspots began in September. These efforts are disguised as military exercises but focus on securing areas at risk of separatist uprisings. The Kurdish regions have drawn particular attention, as Iranian authorities anticipate attacks from armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, supported by external forces.
Regional Threats and Historical Context
Separatist groups in Kurdish-populated areas, including Kurdistan, East Azerbaijan, and West Azerbaijan, have long faced pressure from central governance. The Iranian government has also prepared for unrest in Khuzestan, a southwestern oil province, where the Ahwaziyya group has staged attacks. Similarly, Sistan and Baluchestan in the southeast—home to Iran’s Arab minority—remains a key concern due to frequent assaults on security forces and civilians.
Last week, five Kurdish armed factions in Iraqi Kurdistan announced a unified alliance, signaling readiness to challenge Iranian control. The Komala Party of Iran, another Kurdish group, recently joined this coalition. Meanwhile, US diplomatic efforts with these groups aim to escalate tensions against Iranian forces.
Targeted Strikes and Countermeasures
Data from Middle East Eye reveals that US and Israeli strikes since February 28 have heavily targeted Kurdish cities outside Tehran, such as Marivan, Sanandaj, Saqqez, Baneh, Sarvabad, and Kermanshah. These attacks have disrupted bases, police stations, and border guard facilities.
“Separatist groups should not think they will have an opportunity to act. We will not tolerate them,” warned Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, in a December 28 message.
Iran has responded by launching missile strikes on Kurdish militant headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan. This strategy underscores the nation’s readiness to defend against internal threats, even as external actors seek to exploit regional divisions.
