How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Influence the Iran Conflict

US President Donald Trump asserts that his nation possesses an almost endless supply of essential armaments. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry suggests its forces can endure longer than the US anticipated. While ammunition reserves alone may not determine the war’s conclusion—Ukraine, for instance, has faced overwhelming Russian firepower—these stocks remain a critical element in the ongoing struggle.

The war has been marked by intense activity from the outset. Both factions are exhausting their weapons faster than they can replenish them. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), US and Israeli forces have already executed over 2,000 attacks, each utilizing multiple munitions. Iran, in turn, has launched 571 ballistic missiles and 1,391 drones, though many have been intercepted.

“The US and Israel have carried out more than 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions,” states the INSS. “Iran has already launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones.”

As the conflict prolongs, sustaining this rapid pace of warfare becomes increasingly difficult. Western analysts note a decline in Iran’s missile output—dropping from hundreds on the first day to just dozens recently. Prior to the war, Iran’s stockpile of short-range ballistic missiles was estimated at over 2,000. However, precise weapon counts are often classified to maintain strategic advantage.

General Dan Caine, America’s leading commander, reports a 86% reduction in Iranian missile launches since the fighting began on Saturday. US Central Command (Centcom) adds that there’s been a 23% drop in the past 24 hours. Before the war, Iran mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed drones, which it shared with Russia. These drones have been instrumental in Ukraine’s warfare, with the US adapting their design.

Iran’s drone attacks have also slowed by 73% compared to the conflict’s start. This decline could signal a deliberate effort to conserve supplies, yet production is expected to dwindle further. US and Israeli jets now hold air dominance over Iran, with most of its defenses dismantled. The country’s air force is no longer a credible threat.

Centcom highlights the next phase of the war as targeting Iran’s missile and drone launch sites, as well as its warehouses and manufacturing facilities. This shift may allow the US and Israel to weaken Iran’s combat capacity. However, complete destruction of its weapons stockpiles remains challenging, given Iran’s vast territory—three times the size of France—and the ability to conceal arms from aerial attacks.

Recent examples illustrate the limits of air-based warfare. After three years of relentless bombing, Israel has not eliminated Hamas in Gaza. Similarly, Houthi rebels in Yemen endured a year of US airstrikes while retaining some of their arsenal. Despite its strength, the US still depends heavily on costly precision-guided weapons, which are produced in limited numbers.

Trump is reportedly set to meet with defense suppliers to accelerate production, indicating potential strain on resources. Caine notes the US has transitioned from using expensive long-range missiles to cheaper, more accessible stand-in weapons like JDAM bombs. These can be deployed at closer range, reducing reliance on costly stand-off systems.

“After the initial distant attack, the US can now rely on less expensive missiles and bombs,” explains Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “This approach allows the US to maintain the fighting tempo for an extended period.”

As the war continues, the list of targets will shrink, leading to a natural slowdown in operations. Cancian also points out that while the US has tens of thousands of JDAM bombs, advanced air defense systems are in shorter supply. These were crucial in the early stages for countering Iranian retaliation.