The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?

The US Blockade of Iran: A High-Stakes Move

President Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade on Iranian shipping has raised questions about its effectiveness. While the US military is equipped to enforce such a measure, the outcome remains uncertain. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, speaking to the BBC, acknowledged the feasibility of the operation. “I believe it’s achievable,” he stated, “and less dangerous than the alternative, which would involve confronting Iranian forces directly and risking the disruption of supply routes.”

Recent strategies proposed by Trump—such as capturing Kharg Island or securing convoys in the Strait of Hormuz—could have led to significant risks. US forces would have faced threats from Iranian missiles, drones, and swift vessels. Additionally, the potential for mines in the water added to the complexity. In contrast, a blockade allows American ships to patrol safely beyond Iranian territorial waters, monitoring movements and intercepting targets at their discretion. “The risk here is lower compared to the narrow confines of the Strait,” Montgomery noted.

With a range of assets at its disposal, including special operations teams, helicopters, and fast boats, the US navy is well-prepared for this maneuver. Past blockades of Venezuela and Cuba have shown the practicality of such actions. The seizure of the Russian tanker Marinera in early January further demonstrated the US’s ability to implement these measures across vast distances. However, the success of this latest effort depends on more than just military capability.

US Central Command (Centcom) claims the blockade will target vessels of all nations entering or leaving Iranian ports, while allowing ships using non-Iranian facilities to pass freely. Humanitarian cargo will be permitted but subject to inspections. The goal is to disrupt Iran’s oil exports, which have sustained its economy despite ongoing hostilities. By halting this revenue stream, the US aims to weaken Iran’s financial position.

“They believe they can outweigh this,” said David Satterfield, a former US special envoy for Middle East humanitarian affairs. “The US will experience economic strain from rising oil prices, and Gulf states may pressure Washington to reopen the Strait.”

Iran has already proven its resilience against sustained attacks from the US and Israel. Even with a blockade, the country might endure the pressure, especially as oil prices could climb further. “They think they’ve won,” Satterfield added. “The Iranians believe they can endure more hardship than their adversaries.”

Maritime analysts are closely tracking the movement of ships from Iranian ports. “I’m observing vessels passing through right now,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence expert. “If I were a seafarer, I’d be very concerned.” Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted a surge in activity following Trump’s initial announcement. “The last 48 hours saw the highest traffic in the Strait since the war began in late February,” he reported, with around 30 traceable transits recorded.

With minimal traffic currently underway, it may take time before US intercepts become routine. The conflict has shifted from active combat to a standoff between two blockades, with the global economy bearing the brunt. China’s involvement in recent diplomatic talks in Islamabad suggests Washington hopes Beijing will apply additional pressure on Tehran. As the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, China stands to suffer if the flow is disrupted. Trump’s move, therefore, is a calculated risk—one that could have immediate global consequences.