Report warns Russia using shadow fleet to probe NATO drone defenses
Report Warns Russia Using Shadow Fleet to Probe NATO Drone Defenses
Report warns Russia using shadow fleet - As NATO allies gear up for a critical summit in Turkey, the alliance’s focus has shifted toward drone warfare and the strategic maneuvers of Russia to assess the readiness of its defenses. A recent report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights Russia’s growing reliance on an unassuming network of ships—dubbed a "shadow fleet"—to conduct covert operations that test the reaction times of NATO members and their air defense systems. These vessels, which have been designed to circumvent sanctions, are believed to be a key component in Russia’s broader effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of European military infrastructure.
Drone Activity Across Europe
Between August 2024 and February 2026, the IISS documented 144 instances of suspected drones operating near strategic locations in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark. Notably, these unmanned aerial vehicles were also observed over American air bases in the UK during November 2024. The report suggests that Russia is using these drones to simulate potential attacks, aiming to uncover weaknesses in both military and civilian air defense protocols.
"There's no doubt in my mind that the Russians are using the shadow fleet vessels as a platform to get different types of drones in closer to various European countries," remarked Ret. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe. His remarks underscore the tactical significance of these ships, which provide a mobile base for drone operations without directly implicating Moscow.
The campaign has seen heightened activity in 2025, with over 1,000 suspicious drone sightings reported in Germany alone. These drones targeted defense companies and military installations where Ukrainian forces were undergoing training. Such actions are not limited to military assets; they also extend to critical sites like France’s ballistic-missile submarine base at Île Longue, according to the IISS. The report notes that these incidents have forced repeated closures of major commercial aviation hubs, causing logistical disruptions and raising concerns about the security of Europe’s airspace.
Psychological and Strategic Objectives
Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council emphasized the dual purpose of these drone operations, stating, "Whoever is doing it is testing the reaction of the authorities, is testing how the public will respond, will they panic, will they blame their politicians and the authorities." Her analysis points to the broader psychological impact of the campaign, which seeks to instill fear in European populations and pressure governments to reconsider their support for Ukraine. The IISS also highlights that these drones are used to probe how European nations might react in a real crisis, simulating scenarios that could lead to larger-scale conflicts.
The Russian campaign appears to be a calculated effort to identify gaps in NATO’s response mechanisms. By launching drones from its shadow fleet, Moscow can test the alliance’s ability to detect, intercept, and respond to threats without immediately drawing direct military retaliation. This strategy also allows Russia to create a sense of unpredictability, complicating the decision-making processes of allied nations. As noted by Hodges, the operation blends espionage with psychological warfare, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure to maximize its impact.
"It's a combination of espionage," said Hodges. "But also psychologically to create a lot of anxiety in populations to scare them so that they would put pressure on their governments not to support Ukraine."
Recent incidents have underscored the effectiveness of this approach. In December 2023, Virginia’s Joint Base Langley-Eustis experienced unauthorized drone activity, prompting investigations into the potential involvement of Russia’s shadow fleet. Similarly, in January 2025, a Russian ship named the Arctica was spotted along Denmark’s coast, coinciding with the flight of 20 drones over the port of Koege. These events demonstrate a pattern of coordinated attacks that blur the lines between military reconnaissance and disruptive operations.
Expanding the Threat Beyond Europe
While the focus has been on European targets, the IISS also notes that drone activity has reached the United States. Over the past several years, dozens of unexplained drone sightings have been recorded across American territories, raising questions about the scope of Russia’s influence. These sightings, though not yet linked to specific incidents, highlight the potential for a global threat, as drones become more accessible and their operational range increases.
The report further suggests that Russia’s use of shadow fleet vessels is not just a means of testing defenses but also a tool to normalize low-level airspace violations. By keeping these incidents below the threshold that would trigger an immediate military response, Moscow can gradually erode the confidence of NATO members in their security measures. This, in turn, may create an environment where European nations are more inclined to accept limited engagements or concessions in the face of perceived threats.
Deniability and Operational Flexibility
One of the key advantages of Russia’s shadow fleet is its ability to provide deniability. By launching drones from these ships, Moscow can obscure the origin of attacks, making it harder to attribute blame or escalate tensions. The IISS has tracked the movements of these vessels and found that they were present in the area during several high-profile drone incidents, including the closure of Copenhagen Airport in September 2025. This coordination suggests a level of sophistication in Russia’s operations, blending logistics with intelligence gathering.
Despite the evidence, Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained skeptical of the accusations, stating, "What’s the point of all this? Name even one proven fact." His dismissive tone reflects the broader debate surrounding the extent of Russia’s involvement in these drone activities. However, the IISS report argues that the consistent presence of shadow fleet ships near key targets makes it increasingly difficult to ignore the strategic intent behind the operations.
The implications of this campaign extend beyond immediate security concerns. By infiltrating European airspace and targeting nuclear sites, Russia is not only testing the effectiveness of NATO defenses but also sending a message about its long-term ambitions. The report warns that such actions could become routine, forcing NATO to adapt its strategies to counter an evolving threat. As the shadow fleet continues to operate, the alliance faces a growing challenge in maintaining the integrity of its air defenses while balancing diplomatic and military priorities.
Global Reach of Russian Drone Operations
While the shadow fleet has primarily been active in European waters, its influence is not confined to that region. The IISS notes that dozens of unexplained drone sightings have occurred in the U.S., further complicating the security landscape. These incidents, though not yet fully investigated, suggest that Russia is developing the capability to project its drone operations across the globe. The combination of maritime and aerial assets creates a multi-layered threat, one that could be used to disrupt supply chains, monitor critical infrastructure, or even launch surprise attacks in unexpected locations.
As NATO prepares for its summit in Turkey, the report serves as a timely reminder of the evolving nature of modern warfare. The alliance must now contend with a new dimension of conflict—one that leverages technology and logistics to challenge traditional defense paradigms. The shadow fleet and its associated drone campaigns represent a strategic shift in Russia’s approach, emphasizing patience, deception, and the gradual buildup of pressure on its adversaries. This tactic not only tests the capabilities of NATO but also aims to sow doubt about the reliability of European security systems, potentially reshaping the alliance’s response to future threats.