Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US Military Sustain a Long War in Iran?
Operation Epic Fury was initiated by the United States in Iran on February 28, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. Over the following week, the US executed thousands of strikes nationwide, employing over 20 different weapon systems across air, land, and sea platforms. Among the early targets was Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly eliminated during the first phase of US-Israeli operations.
Confidence in Weapon Stockpiles
Despite the intensity of the strikes, US officials have expressed optimism about their military capacity. President Donald Trump claimed the nation has a “virtually unlimited” supply of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated that Iran “has no hope” of outlasting the US. Hegseth emphasized that “our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need,” during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5.
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Hegseth. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”
General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, shared similar assurances, stating that “sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense” are available. However, Trump’s own remarks on March 2 hinted at underlying concerns. On his social media platform, Truth Social, he noted that while “medium and upper medium grade” munitions are at their best, the highest-grade stockpiles are not yet optimal.
Cost Challenges and Weapon Limitations
Analysts have raised questions about the efficiency of the US military’s response. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, highlighted the disparity in costs between Iran’s Shahed-136 drones and US defense systems. Shahed drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce, while a single fighter jet armed with AIM-9 missiles costs $450,000, plus $40,000 per hour for operational expenses. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” Grieco remarked. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
Grieco also pointed to lessons from Ukraine, where cheaper interceptor drones have proven effective. “The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers,” she said. For long-range threats, the US relies on expensive Patriot missiles, priced at around $3 million each. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that stocks are depleting rapidly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he stated. “200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used.”
Cancian noted that high-grade weapons like Patriots take time to manufacture. Lockheed Martin delivered only 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, and he estimated that acquiring more would require at least two years. In contrast, shorter-range munitions such as bombs and Hellfire missiles appear more sustainable, with “ground munitions to do that” remaining abundant, according to Cancian.
Production Boosts and Skepticism
On March 6, Trump convened with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House described the meeting as long-planned, but Grieco questioned its significance. “I found that to be like a non-announcement because in the last months most of these had already been announced,” she said, casting doubt on the new commitments. The details of Lockheed Martin’s scaled-up production remain unclear, though the strategy aims to address persistent shortages in critical systems.
